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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."